Financial Integration, Excess Consumption Volatility, and the World Real Interest Rate

Abstract:

Contrary to classical macroeconomic theory, the volatility of consumption relative to income has risen in emerging markets despite the international financial integration. This study presents a theoretical mechanism of this phenomenon by developing a small open economy model with an occasionally binding borrowing constraint, named the Interest Coverage Ratio-based borrowing constraint. Calibration exercises show that financial integration improves consumption smoothing and mitigates income shocks. Meanwhile, the foreign debt limit is more sensitive to changes in the world real interest rate. An increase in the world real interest rate tightens the borrowing constraint and decreases consumption significantly for the repayment. Financial integration would make consumption more vulnerable to the world real interest rate changes, resulting the higher volatility in emerging markets.