Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study


Some Remarks on the Causal Inference for Historical Persistence


A growing body of literature examines the relationships between historical events and contemporary economic outcomes. Recent studies estimate the causal effects using detailed historical data and contemporary micro data of individuals and/or households. In this paper, we discuss conceptual and econometric issues inherent in the causal inference following the potential outcomes framework. Using an empirical example, we also discuss a simple alternative approach to avoid these issues that is coherent with the potential outcomes framework.

Report No.: HIAS-E-44
Author(s): Katsuo Kogure(a)
Affiliation: (a) Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University, 46 Shimoadachi-cho, Yoshida, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan

Issued Date: May 2017 (revised in September 2017)
Keywords: History, Economic Development, Causal Effect, Rubin Causal Model
JEL: C01, N01